On the weekly timeframe of EURUSD, the market shows a meaningful reaction from lower levels following a medium-term bearish trend. After forming a major bottom near the 0.95 area, price initiated a recovery move, supported by an ascending trendline, indicating that buyers have stepped in at discounted levels. This shift suggests a transition from an accumulation phase into a corrective bullish structure. However, this upward movement is still unfolding within a broader bearish macro structure, and unless key weekly highs are decisively broken, it cannot yet be classified as a long-term trend reversal.
At present, price is approaching a significant weekly supply zone aligned with a Weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG) around the 1.20 region. This area represents an important imbalance left from previous bearish momentum and is positioned near prior structural highs. From a liquidity perspective, such zones tend to attract sellers, especially after an impulsive bullish recovery. When price reaches higher-timeframe supply following a sharp rally, the probability of renewed selling pressure and a deeper correction typically increases.
On the intermediate timeframes, a BB + Monthly FVG confluence zone can be identified within the mid-range of the recent move, acting as a key decision area. If price fails to sustain acceptance above this region and forms clear rejection signals or weakening momentum within the weekly FVG, the dominant scenario may shift toward a multi-leg corrective decline. In this case, an initial pullback toward the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement of the recent bullish leg becomes likely, followed by a potential extension toward lower liquidity pools around 1.02–1.00, where resting sell-side liquidity is positioned below intermediate lows.
The alternative bullish scenario would require strong acceptance above the weekly FVG and a decisive breakout of key structural highs with sustained momentum. Such a development would increase the probability of a broader trend reversal and open the path toward higher long-term targets. However, considering price is currently positioned inside a higher-timeframe supply zone after completing a significant portion of its corrective advance, the short-term downside correction scenario carries greater weight.
In summary, EURUSD is trading at a structurally sensitive inflection point. The confluence of weekly supply, an unfilled FVG, and prior resistance levels makes this region the boundary between continued corrective upside and the initiation of a new bearish leg. The market’s reaction within this zone and the preservation—or violation—of intermediate higher lows will likely determine the directional bias for the coming weeks.
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