Gold is currently positioned in a technically interesting area on the four-hour timeframe. After a sharp decline from previous highs, the price has entered a relatively compressed and orderly range, now trading around the $4,710 level. Within this structure, the $4,645–$4,670 area acts as a key short-term support zone; this is the same area highlighted in blue on the chart. A decisive break below this zone could shift the current balance in favor of sellers. However, as long as price remains above this support, the dominant scenario remains a potential bullish recovery toward higher resistance levels.
From a structural perspective, gold is moving inside a short-term ascending channel, although this channel is still developing beneath the pressure of a broader descending trendline that began from previous highs. For this reason, buying around the current area appears more reasonable only if the $4,650 support is preserved and signs of renewed demand appear near the lower boundary of the channel. In this scenario, entering a long position at a favorable price with a stop-loss below $4,650 could offer an attractive risk-to-reward setup. The initial targets for this move would be the $4,830–$4,900 resistance zone, which is marked on the chart as a supply area. A valid breakout above this region could then open the way for a move toward the larger descending trendline around the $5,000 level.
That said, it is important to remember that gold has not yet fully escaped selling pressure. If the $4,650 support breaks and price stabilizes below it, the short-term bullish scenario would lose validity. In that case, a pullback toward the $4,700 area could be considered a potential short-selling opportunity, as broken support often turns into resistance. Under this bearish scenario, the first downside targets would be around $4,560 and then the $4,500 area, where buyers may once again attempt to defend the market.
From a news perspective, the market environment remains relatively cautious. According to Reuters, gold has started the week with limited movement, while traders are closely watching developments around U.S.–Iran negotiations, oil prices, and the upcoming Federal Reserve decision. At the same time, inflation concerns driven by energy prices could complicate the outlook for U.S. monetary policy. The Federal Reserve’s official calendar also shows that the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for April 28–29. Therefore, although today’s market may appear calm in terms of immediate economic data, the Fed’s upcoming decision continues to influence the U.S. dollar, bond yields, and consequently gold prices.
Overall, today’s trading plan is based on two clear scenarios. The first is the preservation of the $4,650 support zone and a potential long entry at a favorable price, with targets at $4,830, $4,900, and, if resistance is broken, around $5,000. The second scenario is a break below support, followed by a shift in focus toward selling on a pullback near $4,700. The key point is that gold can produce misleading moves around such important levels, so risk management is more important than the entry itself. A professional trader does not seek to win everything in one or two trades; instead, the goal is to build a positive and sustainable outcome through a series of well-managed positions. This analysis is for educational and analytical purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
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